What’s going wrong for the Kansas City Chiefs’ Offense

The Kansas City Chiefs’ offense is struggling with dropped passes and a lack of open receivers. The departure of Tyreek Hill has left the wide receiver room thin.
Despite their offensive issues, Patrick Mahomes remains an exceptional quarterback and the Chiefs still have a decent ranking in offensive success rate and Expected Points per Drive.
The Chiefs’ defense is strong, ranking highly in several categories and resembling the New England Patriots’ early years. The team remains confident in Mahomes and head coach Andy Reid to turn things around.

The Kansas City Chiefs’ loss to the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 11 exemplified the glaring issues that could foil any hopes of repeating as Super Bowl champs. In that game, the Chiefs dropped five passes, pushing their league-leading total to 26. That’s five more than the second-place Detroit Lions.

The previously high-powered Kansas City offense also owns the lowest second-half scoring total in the entire NFL! In three straight games, they’ve failed to score even a single point in the second half. Here’s what’s going wrong with the reigning Super Bowl champs’ offense and what it means for their chances this season.
Wide Receiver Woes
Marquez Valdes-Scantling

Once the Chiefs fielded one of the best offenses in the league AFTER trading Tyreek Hill last season; any criticism of general manager Brett Veach melted away. He calculated that the wizard Patrick Mahomes could still manage a top-flight offense, allowing him to divert Hill’s cap space and draft capital into a more well-rounded team. The defense looks as advertised.

They held the Eagles to just 21 points on 4.4 yards per play while smothering the seemingly unstoppable A.J. Brown. However, since Hill’s departure, the receivers have become the elephant in the room. Rookie Rashee Rice counts as the most productive of the bunch.

But between Kadarius Toney, Skyy Moore, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Justin Watson, and Mecole Hardman, the rest of the receiving corps feels desperately thin. Valdes-Scantling dropped a perfectly placed potential game-winner against Philly. Watson also dropped a crucial fourth down that could have extended the game.

Besides the drops, guys just aren’t open enough. Mahomes is holding the ball for 2.96 seconds, which ranks among the longest in the league. Last season, their all-world tight end Travis Kelce propped up the offense. By his own admission, Kelce’s been off lately too:

I’ve got to be better. I’m just not playing up to the level that I have in the past. I’ve got to be better. (It’s) turnovers and penalties on our half. It’s nothing that they (Philadelphia) did. It’s all us.

Whether it’s Kelce returning to form or one of these young wide receivers fulfilling their potential, the Chiefs need a boost.
Overall Offensive Health
Patrick Mahomes, face, Kansas City Chiefs

While alarm bells are sounding in Kansas City, it’s probably not time for Defcon 1. They still rank 15th in offensive success rate and 10th in Expected Points per Drive. Even in the loss, Mahomes demonstrated the gulf between him and every other QB. He’s the singular quarterback that on fourth and 25, you think, “yeah, he could get this.” And if not for Watson’s drop, he would have.

It was shades of the Super Bowl loss aganist the Tampa Bay Buccaneers where, even while under complete distress, he still gave receivers chances to make plays. As Mahomes said after the Eagles loss:

They (his receivers) know I’m going to keep firing it. That’s just who I am. I’m going to fire it to the guy who’s open. Usually, they’re going to make the plays.

Mahomes hasn’t been perfect either, as he threw a red zone interception against Philly. As a team, the Chiefs (19) are behind only the Las Vegas Raiders (21), Washington Commanders (20), and Cleveland Browns (20) in turnovers. 19 is more than KC posted in all of 2018, 2019, and 2020! Historically, turnovers come and go, but it’s still something to watch for.

With the rest of the AFC in upheaval, the Chiefs could easily still make the Super Bowl, but they do look a little vulnerable. Vegas agrees, as both the San Francisco 49ers and Philadelphia Eagles have similar Super Bowl odds, sitting around +450.
New England Midwest?
Chris Jones

Ultimately, Kansas City’s suffocating defense should buoy any concerned fans. They rank third in points per game (16.4), points per play, fourth in yards per game (283.2), and top 10 in both third down and fourth down conversions. The only aspect where you’d like to see improvement is red zone scoring, where they fall to 23rd (59.2 percent).

Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo counts among the few DCs who can stymie offenses come playoff time. Ironically, the way Veach built this team looks eerily similar to the New England Patriots dynasty, especially in the early years. Before the 16-0 Tom Brady-Randy Moss offensive juggernaut, the Patriots poured resources into their defense while basically making do with small white slot receivers.

Even Mahomes’ willingness to take less money in order to build the roster around him, echoes the actions of Brady. His salary currently ranks seventh at his position. Defensive star Chris Jones doesn’t sound too worried about the offense either:

We have a lot of hope in Pat Mahomes and Andy Reid. They’ve scored a lot of points and we never once doubted them. … We always trust that if we give them the ball back, we have an opportunity to score and I don’t think that changes after one game.

One game in the rain doesn’t mean Kansas City’s taking on water, but they do have some holes they need to start plugging.

All statistics courtesy of Pro Football Reference and all contract information courtesy of Spotrac unless stated otherwise.